How the NBR works

Most teams never play each other directly. The NBR doesn’t need them to. We solve the entire web of games at once — a single statistical model finds the one set of numbers that best explains every result across the whole state. Strength flows through chains of common opponents: if your opponents beat the teams that beat other teams, that all feeds your NBR. Tournaments are the bridges that connect everyone into one comparable pool.

A blowout says more than a one-run nail-biter, so bigger wins move the needle more — but with diminishing returns, and the margin is capped at 7 runs. Winning 12–2 counts well above winning 6–5, but a 7-run win counts the same as winning by 15 or 25. Running up the score never pads your NBR.

Because every team is solved together from the same web of results, there’s no easy way to inflate an NBR. Quality of opponent is what counts — beating weak teams barely moves you, and padding the schedule with easy wins can even lower your NBR relative to teams testing themselves against tougher fields. Running up the score doesn’t help (margin is capped at 7 runs), and old results fade as recent games take over. The most reliable way up is simple: play good teams and beat them.

The NBR is recalculated regularly and weights recent games more heavily, so it moves week to week as the season unfolds. A team that’s rolling climbs; a team that’s slipping falls. No one stays on top on reputation — you have to keep winning.

Teams with only a handful of games are shown as Provisional and treated cautiously (and kept out of the default NBR list) until there’s enough data to be confident — about 5 games. Every team also carries a confidence level based on how much it has played.

Most clubs register a new team each year (e.g. 13U → 14U). When a team links its new season to its old one, its NBR carries forward as a starting point rather than resetting — then quickly adjusts as the new season’s games come in.

An NBR is only meaningful relative to a connected web of opponents. Early in a season, before tournaments link everyone together, separate groups of teams aren’t directly comparable — expect the NBR to settle as the season’s results fill in.

An 8U team and a 16U team shouldn’t land on the same number just because each dominates its own bracket. The NBR places every age group on one developmental scale, so an average older team sits above an average younger one. The size of each step is learned from the games where teams play up against an older age group — those cross-age matchups are the bridges that line the brackets up. Because strong young teams are the ones that tend to play up, the scale is held to a sensible, always-increasing curve so a single upset can’t flip an entire age group above an older one. Comparisons within an age group are always the most reliable; cross-age numbers firm up as more teams play up. Filter by age group for the most direct comparison.

Scores are compiled from publicly available game results and from games entered by our team. The NBR is refreshed on a weekly to semi-weekly basis.